Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 0600 UTC : 22.3S / 53.4E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 180 SO: 300 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 22.7S/54.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 22.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 22.7S/56.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 23.3S/56.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LLCC. NORTHNORTHWESTERN SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE BIT STRONGER SEEMS TO SAY THAT WEAKENING IS ON THE WAY. LAST QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS 30 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GARDIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST, INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT. EX-FAME IS EXPECTED DRIFTING GLOBALLY ON ITS SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK, THEN MORE SOUTHWARDS BEHIND GULA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO STRONGER WINDSHEAR.