Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1200 UTC : 22.7S / 52.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 300 SO: 480 NO: 230 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 22.6S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 24.8S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 29.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.0+ AND CI=2.5- WINDSHEAR IS INCREASING AND EX-FAME IS WEAKENED GRADUALLY. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DRIFTED IN ITS SOUTHEAST BUT SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD APPEND. EX-FAME HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS WITHIN FEW HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS TIME, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GULA IS ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS , BUILDING A TROUGH IN ITS WAKE AND WEAKEN THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL BELT. EX-FAME IS EXPECTING TRACKING BACK EATSWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING AND DISSIPATING IN THE TROUGH.