Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 21.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 22.4S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 29.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.0+ AND CI=2.5- THE CIRCULATION IS ASYMETRIC DUE TO THE GRADIENT WHITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHAT EXPLAIN THE NEAR GALE WINDS EXTENSION FAR IN THE SOUTH (SEE QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1422Z). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTWARDS CONSTRAINT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-FAME HAS STARTED TO MAKE A LOOP TOWARDS THE TROPICAL STORM GULA, WHICH IS TRACKING QUIKCLY SOUTHWARDS. EX-FAME SHOULD FOLLOW GULA , EVACUATING SOUTHWARDS, AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE TROUGH OF GULA.