Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 62.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 13.4S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 14.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 15.7S/60.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 16.3S/59.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 17.0S/58.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOW CONSOLIDATED AND ORGANIZED IN THE WEST OF AN ELONGATED LLCC (THANKS TO 0208Z QUIKSCAT SWAT). LAST METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL EXPOSED LITTLE VORTEX BUT ANIMATION MAKES BE ABLE TO LOCATE A MAIN LLCC. DISPITE A GLOBALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOESN'T PERMIT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST NWP DEEPEN A SIGNIFICANT LOW AT MEDIUM RANGE.