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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 62.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 13.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 14.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 14.5S/61.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 15.2S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 15.7S/60.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 16.5S/59.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0-

SYSTEM REMAINS ILL DEFINED AS SEEN IN SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF 14:20Z AND 14:48Z. IN LATEST HOURS, A CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP JUST WEST OF THE LLCC. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACKS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN A LITTLE BIT ALLOWING SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.