Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0600 UTC : 12.9S / 62.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 14.0S/61.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 14.6S/61.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 15.1S/60.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 15.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 16.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 17.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH PERSISTENCE. IT MAY NEED TO BE RELOCALIZE LATER TODAY. SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF 25S AND ALONG 57E. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS MOTION SHOULD BE AT A LOWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING NORTHWESTWARD. AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK ...UKMO AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOST DIFFRENT SOLUTIONS. UKMO ALMOST TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS AND ECMWF MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS. PRESENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY US MODELS (AVNO,GFDL). EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.