Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 1200 UTC : 13.7S / 62.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 14.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 14.9S/61.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.5S/60.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.1S/59.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIF FOR NAME T AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS MOTION SHOULD BE AT A LOWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING NORTHWESTWARD. AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK DEPENDING ON DEGRE OF REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UP TO 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN FRONT OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.