Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 61.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 15.2S/61.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.3S/60.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.6S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 18.4S/57.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.3S/56.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE AWAY AND SYSTEM SEEMS TO BEGIN RECURVING ITS TRACK. IT SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, SLOWING DOWN STRONGLY. BEYOND TO 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN FRONT OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW EVENING. A MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFICATION PHASIS SOULD ALSO BEGIN. *** CORRECTIVE ISSUED DO TO AN ERROR ABOUT THE SHEAR IN THE ENGLISH COMMENTARY ****