Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 62.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 060 SO: 040 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 15.2S/61.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 15.5S/61.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.9S/60.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.5S/58.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- RELOCATED CENTRE EAST OF THE 0000Z ESTIMATED CENTRE THANKS TO THE SSMI AT 0035Z. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD AT FIRTS BE QUITE SLONW DOWN BY THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.