Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 1200 UTC : 14.9S / 62.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 080 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 14.9S/61.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.1S/60.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 15.8S/59.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.5S/58.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 19.6S/57.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/55.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BY THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.