Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 62.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 14.7S/61.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.2S/60.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.6S/57.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 20.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.4S/55.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A REGULAR CDO PATTERN DURING THE LAST HOURS, AND AN EYE IS VISIBLE ON THE LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY THE WEAKENING EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF A RIDGE ON THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.