Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0000 UTC : 14.5S / 61.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 14.6S/61.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7S/59.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/58.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/56.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 24.7S/55.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+ THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ACCORDING TO THE VERY LAST SATELITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY THE WEAKENING EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF A RIDGE ON THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.