Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 61.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.1S/61.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.9S/59.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.4S/58.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.9S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 20 NM EYE. IT MOVES WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT LOW SPEED. SYSTEM HAS CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTRPICALE RIDGE SOUTHWARDS AND THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD. NWP RUN OF 12 AND 18Z ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE OF TRACKS. THIS IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF EX-FAME BETWEEN REUNION ISLAND AND MADAGASCAR THAT ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LES AND LESS INFLUENCE, SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY ACCELERATE. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHEAR STRENGHEN A LITTLE BIT.