Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/9/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 61.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7S/60.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.1S/58.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.4S/57.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 24.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 25.9S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 CI=5.5 OVERALL PRESENTATION OF GULA HAS A LITTLE BIT DETRIORATED IN THE LATEST FEW HOURS (LIKELY DUE TO COLLER SST INDUCES BY THE SYSTEM). IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS TONIGHT AND ACCELARING PROGRESSIVELY. IT COULD GAIN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AS IT MOVES FASTER