Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/9/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1800 UTC : 14.9S / 60.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.3S/59.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.5S/58.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.2S/55.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 24.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 26.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 CI=5.0+ THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO LOWER HEAT POTENTIAL DUE TO THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TRMM 1453Z SHOWS AN ERODED EYE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURINT THE BECOMING NIGHT AND EVOLVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO A REINTENSIFICATION (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK WINDSHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE). THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST THAT EXPLAINS THIS FORECASTED QUICK TRACK. GULA'S TRACK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLYIMPACTED BY THE EXISTENCE OF EX-FAME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.