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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 60.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 16.8S/59.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 19.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.7S/57.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 25.3S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 28.1S/55.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 30.8S/56.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-
GULA'S CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO LOWER HEAT POTENTIAL DUE TO THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND EVOLVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO A REINTENSIFICATION (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK WINDSHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE).
THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST THAT EXPLAINS THIS FORECASTED QUICK TRACK. GULA'S TRACK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY EX-FAME'S EXISTENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.