Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0600 UTC : 15.3S / 60.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 18.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.1S/58.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 23.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 27.7S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- AND CI=3.5 GULA HAS BEEN RE-ANALIZED ACCORDING TO LAST DATA AT A WEAKER INTENSITY (MICRO-WAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA). GULA HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS (LDUE TO COOLER SSTS INDUCED BY THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO TO A SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM EXPLAINS THE FACT THAT IT HASN'T RESISTED TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.