Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : 16.9S / 60.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 2.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 18.9S/60.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 21.3S/59.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 23.8S/57.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 26.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 29.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: 32.2S/59.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0+ GULA HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS SINCE THIS MORNING UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST (AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WHICH WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST) DUE TO AN INTENSIFYING EASTSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND THE LOCATION IS RELIABLE. INTENSITY AND EXTENSION OF WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 0542Z ASCAT METOP DATA. THE 11925 BUOY SLP, LOCATED AT 35NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AT 1100Z, WAS MESURED AT 995 HPA, WHAT CONFIRME THE MSLP ESTIMATED AT 990 HPA. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LESS SHEARED AND SST AT 27 TO 28 CELSIUS DEGREES), THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SO IMPORTANT THAT IT SHOULDN'T APPROACH CLOSE TO SISTERS ISLANDS AT MORE THAN THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.