Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 60.1E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 20.2S/59.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 22.4S/58.6E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 24.9S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 27.4S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 30.8S/58.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 34.1S/62.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0+ RELOCALISATION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN MADE AFTER REANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM PASS AT 1357Z AND WINDSAT AT 1410Z) DO NOT DEPICTED A "GOOD HEALTHY" LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (37 GHZ) DESPITE THE RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THESE DATA SHOW THAT GULA HAS TRACKED MORE SOUTHWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. GULA IS NOW UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST (AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WHICH WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST) WINDS EXTANSION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST SAINT BRANDON OBSERVATIONS (35 KT AT 17:00 UTC) EVEN IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LESS SHEARED AND SST AT 27 TO 28 CELSIUS DEGREES), THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SO IMPORTANT THAT IT SHOULDN'T APPROACH CLOSE TO SISTERS ISLANDS AT MORE THAN THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.