Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 21.3S/57.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 23.4S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 25.0S/55.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 27.2S/55.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: 30.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 00 UTC: 33.2S/60.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ AND CI=3.0+ CORRECTION FOR INTENSITY TENDENCY. RELOCALISATION OF THE CENTER ATY 18:00Z HAS BEEN MADE AFTER REANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA (MAINLY SURFACE OBERVTIONS OF BUOY 56504). PAST AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF 18:20Z (AND PREVIOUSLY ON SSMI OF 15:26Z) REVEALS AN EYE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL NOT IN PHASIS WITH THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS LOCATED MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF AQUA OF 21:26Z GIVE THE SAME STRUCTURE. OVERALL CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO IMPROVED DURING THE NIGHT WITH A NICE CCC PRESENTATION THAT MADE DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE THE CENTER BASED ON IR IMAGERY. GULA IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST. 06Z AND 12Z NWP MODELS RUN PRESENT TWO KIND OF SOLUTIONS. AMERICAN MODEL CONSENSUS, GFDN AND UKMO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT AS ECMWF, EPS AND FRENCH MESO SCALE MODEL ALADIN KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION, IT THE SECOND SOLUTION THAT IS KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ONTHIS TRACK GULA SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF MAURITIUS LATER TODAY. IT COULD REGAIN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE, ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION ON THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THESE CONDITIONS ON SHORE ...