Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8S / 59.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.9S/58.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 24.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 26.1S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 27.6S/57.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 30.1S/59.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 06 UTC: 33.1S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ AND CI=3.0+ GULA IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST. AMERICAN MODEL CONSENSUS, GFDN AND UKMO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT AS ECMWF, AND FRENCH HIGHRES NWP ALADIN KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. THIS SCENARIO IS KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ONTHIS TRACK GULA SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF MAURITIUS TODAY AFETERNOON. IT COULD REGAIN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE, ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION ON THE FORECAST TRACK LINKED TO INTERACTION WITH EX-FAME TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING THESE CONDITIONS ON THE ISLAND.