Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 58.4E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 31.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 34.7S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: 38.9S/69.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 00 UTC: 41.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 12 UTC: 40.2S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TAKING THIS TROUGH AND MAKING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.