Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : 24.3S / 57.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 28.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 32.9S/58.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 36.2S/62.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 40.2S/68.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 06 UTC: 42.6S/75.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/02/03 18 UTC: 41.9S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 GULA HAS ACCELERATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN ITS SOUTH. IR AND MICRI-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT IT HAS INTENSIFIED (SEE SSMIS AT 1637Z, WHERE SOLID CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN MID-LEVEL), BUT FAVORABLE CONDIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST THIS NIGHT (DIURNAL CYCLE, AREA OF SST AT 28 DEGRES CELSIUS, POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE TROUGH AND MAKE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.