Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/01 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 56.1E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 180 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 27.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 31.4S/56.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: 35.0S/59.5E EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/03 00 UTC: 38.8S/65.7E EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 12 UTC: 43.0S/73.6E EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0; CI=3.5 GULA RUNS SOUTHSOUTWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT SHORT RANGE WHILE INITIATING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE SINCE PENETRATING INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND JOINING COOLER OCEANIC WATERS. IT WILL THEREAFTER BE EXPELLED AT AN ACCELERATED PACE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.