Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/9/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 600 SO: 300 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 030 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 29.2S/53.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 33.8S/54.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/02 18 UTC: 38.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/03 06 UTC: 43.1S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/02/03 18 UTC: 46.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0; CI=3.5- ASYMMETRICAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DUE TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. GULA RUSHES TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD SOON RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INITIATING ITS VERY SOON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE BEFORE BEING EXPELLED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.