Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/9/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4S / 55.3E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 29.1S/58.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: 32.3S/61.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/02/03 00 UTC: 36.0S/65.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/02/03 12 UTC: 41.0S/74.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=3.0-. THE SYSTEM IS NOTHWESTLY SHEARED, THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. ASYMMETRICAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DUE TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. GULA HAS CLEARLY SLOWN DOWN DURING THE VERY LAST HOURS, STOPPED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE , IT IS GOING TO RECURVED SOUTHWARDS THEN MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS, WHILE INITIATING ITS VERY SOON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE BEFORE BEING EXPELLED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.