Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2008/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : 12.3S / 80.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/04 18 UTC: 12.2S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/05 06 UTC: 12.4S/81.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 12.7S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 12.9S/82.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.2S/83.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 13.6S/84.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SMALL AND WELL DEFINED, EXISTING SINCE ALMOST 48 HOURS. YESTERDAY, IT WAS STILL TOTALLY EXPOSED. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS VERY RECENT, ONLY DEVELOPPED SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND A SMALL AREA OF POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS STILL NON CONSOLIDATED AND ORGANIZED (CCC). A BUOY (53948) LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER INDICATES A WEAKENING SLP OF THIS BORNING LOW (-4HPA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS). IT IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.