Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2008/02/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 80.1E (TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/05 00 UTC: 12.4S/80.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/05 12 UTC: 12.5S/80.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/06 00 UTC: 12.7S/81.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 12.9S/81.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 13.1S/82.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 13.4S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SMALL AND WELL DEFINED, EXISTING SINCE ALMOST 48 HOURS. YESTERDAY, IT WAS STILL TOTALLY EXPOSED. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RECENT, ONLY DEVELOPPED SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND A SMALL AREA OF POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT HAS NEVERTHELESS RESISTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THAT DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK GLOBALLY SLOWLY EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEFORE ADOPTING THIS TRACK, THE LOW COULD MAKE SMALL LOOPS IN THE VICINITY OF ITS ACTUAL LOCATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.