Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2008/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/05 06 UTC: 13.2S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 13.4S/81.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 13.5S/82.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.7S/83.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+/2.5- AN SSMI PASS AT 14:09Z AND AN AMSU-B PASS AT 16:25Z SEEMS TO SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO MORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARDS BUT IS ON A QUASI-STATIONNARY STATE A LITTLE BIT SOUTHEASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. A SLOW EASTSOUTHEAST MOTION SHOULD START SOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPPED OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE THE EVENING. QUICKSCAT PASS AT 12:35Z SHOWS SOME UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT. SO INTENSITY IS CLOSED TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. HOWEVER, AS THIS NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS QUITE RECENT, MAX WINDS IS KEPT AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. SLIGHT EASTERLY TO EASTNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) SEEMS TO BE STILL PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM (CIRRUS EXPENSION). THE SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY LESSEN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24H-36H. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK GLOBALLY SLOWLY EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDED ALONG THE WHOLE BASIN (CF ECMWF CHARTS AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA LEVEL). THE PRESENT GUIDANCE IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NWP MODELS (ECMWF, GFDN, UKMET, ARPTROP, CONW) AND IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.