Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 80.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/05 12 UTC: 13.6S/80.4E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 13.8S/80.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.2S/82.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 14.5S/82.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 AN AQUA PASS AT 19:55Z SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. BASED ON THIS IMPROVMENT ON OVERALL CONFIGURATION SEEN ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS SCAT PASS THAT SHOWS UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS, SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH 30 KT MAX WINDS. MOREOVER, BUOY 53948, LOCATED AT 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF TH ESTIMATED CENTER, HAS NOW A 24H PRESSURE FALL AT -4 HPA. EASTERLY TO EASTNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LESSEN (CF. CIMSS DATA). OBSERVATIONS AND NWP CHARTS SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SYSTEM, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAYS. NWP MODELS FROM 12Z HAS NOT SHIFT THEIR SOLUTION. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO HAVE AN UNUSUAL EASTSOUTHEAST SLOW TRACK UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDED ALONG THE WHOLE BASIN (CF ECMWF CHARTS AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA LEVEL). GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, FORECAST TRACK FOLLOW NWP MODELS THAT REFLECT IT (ECMWF, GFDN) AND EXCLUDED SOME REALLY FAST SOLUTIONS (UKMO, ARPTROP)