Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 80.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 13.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 13.4S/81.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.6S/81.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 13.9S/81.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.2S/82.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 14.6S/83.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 RECENT MICROWAVE SWATHS ((AQUA 1955Z AND SSMI/F13 0101Z) SHOWS AN IMPROVMENT ON CONFIGURATION. FIRST VISIBLE METESAT7 CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 6 TENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REMAINING QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNEDRGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST). GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, FORECAST TRACK FOLLOW NWP MODELS THAT REFLECT IT (ECMWF, GFDN) AND EXCLUDED SOME REALLY FAST SOLUTIONS (UKMO, ARPTROP). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAINING FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE ALL RANGES OF THIS FORECAST , SO "HONDO" SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER, ITS SLOW TRACK COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND IN CONSEQUENCE ITS INTENSIFICATION, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.