Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7S/81.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 13.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 13.9S/82.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 14.5S/83.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS BEEN NAMED "HONDO" AT 0545UTC. SINCE 0630Z, "HONDO" SHOWS A EYE BAND FEATURE AND THEN A CLOSED EYE, WELL SHOWED ON MICROWAVE 0809Z AQUA SWATH. CONVECTIVE CENTRAL AREA IS 50 NM DIAMETER, "HONDO" ALSO SEEMS EVOLUATING TO A MIDGET STORM. LAST METEOSAT7 IMAGERY DOESN'T SHOW THIS EYE ANYMORE BUT MIDGET STORMS HAVE USUAL FLUCTUATION AT THIS STAGE. IT IS NOT NECESSARY A SIGN OF WEAKENING. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE EYE AND THE PARALAX, METEOSAT7 UNDERESTIMATES REAL EYE TEMPERATURE AND DOES NOT PERMIT A CORRECT DVORAK ANALYSE IN ENFORCED INFRARED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REMAINING QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNEDRGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAINING FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE ALL RANGES OF THIS FORECAST , SO "HONDO" SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER, ITS SLOW TRACK COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND IN CONSEQUENCE ITS INTENSIFICATION, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME LINKED TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND SO THE LIMITED OCEANIC MIXED AREA. RMW HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0809Z AQUA AND 30KT WINDS EXTENSION THANKS TO 0105Z QUIKSCAT AND 0335 ASCAT SWATHS.