Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 1800 UTC : 13.9S / 81.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 290 SO: 200 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 14.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 14.1S/82.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.3S/82.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.7S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.2S/84.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/85.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5- THE EYE IS EMBEDED IN THE CDO AND IS NOT DETECTABLE ANYMORE OVER EIR IMAGERY. THE SSMI IMAGERY AT 1353Z ALLOWS TO LOCATE IT WITH A GOOD PROXY (SEE SSMI COLOR85). THIS IS A A VERY SMALL 10NM RADIUS EYE. HONDO IS A MIDGET, VERY DEPENDANT AND REACTIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, WHOSE INTENSITY CAN BE FLUCTUANT AND HARDLY ESTIMATED ACCORDING THE ONLY DVORAK ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GLOBALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNEDRGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GLOBALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, ITS SLOW MOTION COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WHAT EXPLAINS THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION FORECASTED.