Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 0000 UTC : 14.2S / 81.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 260 SO: 170 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 14.3S/81.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 14.5S/82.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.8S/82.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.2S/83.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 16.0S/84.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 17.0S/85.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- AFTER HAVING BEEN EMBEDED DURING THE NIGHT, THE EYE HAS CAME BACK ON THE LAST INFRA-RED IMAGERY AT 0000Z, WHAT EXPLAINS THE ESTIMATION OF T4.5-. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GLOBALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL (WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW). HOWEVER, ITS SLOW MOTION COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WHAT EXPLAINS THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION FORECASTED.