Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 0600 UTC : 14.1S / 81.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 180 SO: 270 NO: 270 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 14.2S/81.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.4S/82.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.8S/82.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 16.1S/84.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 17.5S/86.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5+ THE SYSTEM IS GOING ON ACHIEVING AN EYE CYCLE (CF TMI AND SSMI DATA OF 0046 AND 0059UTC) AFTER A STOP, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESTART IN THE NEXT HOURS. HONDO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDERGOING A COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GLOBALLY FAVORABLE (WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW). THE EXPECTED RESTART IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, IN A FIRST TIME WITH A BILDING POLARWARDS OUTFLOW UP TO TAU 36, MAIS IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COLDER SST DURING THE LAST PART OF THE FORCAST.