Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 1200 UTC : 14.2S / 81.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 180 SO: 270 NO: 270 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 14.5S/82.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.7S/82.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.0S/82.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.6S/84.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.9S/85.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- THE SYSTEM IS GOING ON INTENSIFYING SLOWLY SINCE THIS MORNING, IT SHOWS NOW A BIGGER EYE INTO A LARGER CDO, EYE YET FLUCTUATIONG AND IRREGULAR DURING THE LAST HOURS. HONDO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDERGOING A COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GLOBALLY FAVORABLE (WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW). THE EXPECTED RESTART IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, IN A FIRST TIME WITH A BILDING POLARWARDS OUTFLOW UP TO TAU 24, MAIS IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COLDER SST DURING THE LAST PART OF THE FORCAST.