Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 82.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.7S/82.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 15.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.4S/83.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 15.9S/84.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.8S/85.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 17.9S/86.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 HONDO IS ENTERING AGAIN INTO A NEW PHASIS OF QUICK INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STAIONNARY ON THIS LOCATION WITHIN THE RECENT 2 HOURS. IT IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO KEEP ON REMAINING ON ITS RECENT SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK , UNDERGOING COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNDERGOING GLOBALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD GO ON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND HONDO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.