Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 82.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 15.1S/82.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.4S/83.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.5S/84.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.7S/87.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ AND CI=6.0+ HONDO HAS REACHED INTENSITY PEAK WEDNESDAY AT 1830Z AND SHOWS NOW A LESS DEFINED EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY , PROBABLY UNDERGOING A LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECASTED TO INFORCE SIGNIFICANTLY BERFORE 48 HOURS, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR. HONDO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON REMAINING ON ITS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK , UNDERGOING COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.