Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 0600 UTC : 14.7S / 82.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 15.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/83.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/84.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.8S/85.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 17.8S/86.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 19.1S/87.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0+ AND CI=6.0+ DESPITE A POORLIER EYE PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY DURING LAST NIGHT, HONDO HAS A BETTER PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGERY (CF SSSMIS 07/0233Z WITH ANNULAR PATTERN (SLIGHTLY ERODED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ; LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RATHER GOOD. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND SHOULD THEN QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.