Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/08 AT 0000 UTC : 15.1S / 83.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 114 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.4S/83.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.0S/84.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4S/85.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.3S/86.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.7S/85.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0+, CI=6.5+ HONDO SEEMS HAVING REACH ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY YESTERDAY, HOWEVER IT ALWAYS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE, BUT CONVECTION IS LESS COLD. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND SHOULD THEN QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. IT HAS TRACKED SLOWLY EASTWARDS DURING THE VERY LAST HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESTART SOON SOUTHEASTWARDS.HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.