Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/08 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 84.1E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 190 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/85.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.1S/85.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.1S/86.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 19.4S/86.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 20.5S/86.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 21.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+, CI=6.0 EVEN IF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS SLIGHTY DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY, HONDO IS STILL A POWERFULL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ITS MORE EASTWARDS MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS MAINTAINED IT OVER ENOUGH WARM SST. IT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE ANY LONGER, AS ALL NWP MODELS AGREE FOR A MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK IN THE NEXT HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORCAST TO BUILT SOUTHWARDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. HONDO SHOULD CONTINUE BE ON A WEAKENING TREND, AS IT SHOULD BE OVER COOLER SST TOMORROW AND AS NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AS HONDO WILL HAVE WEAKER STEERING FLOW.