Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/08 AT 1800 UTC : 15.6S / 84.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 190 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.5S/85.4E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 17.7S/86.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 18.9S/86.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/10 18 UTC: 20.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 21.9S/86.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/85.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0, CI=6.0+ ON THE LAST IMAGERY, HONDO SHOWS A POWERFUL EYE PATTERN WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED, CIRCULAR AND BIG SIZE EYE. THE SYSTEM TRACKS REGULARLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. HONDO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHOULD BE OVER COOLER SST AT TAU 18/24H AND UNDERGO A NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR STARTING MAINLY ON SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AS HONDO WILL HAVE WEAKER STEERING FLOW. NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.