Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 0600 UTC : 16.6S / 85.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 190 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 18.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 19.5S/85.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/85.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/84.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 22.9S/83.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 23.2S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5-, CI=6.0+ HONDO SHOWS A POWERFUL EYE PATTERN WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED, CIRCULAR, WITH 40NM DIAMETER EYE. SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED, WHAT EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF T. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HONDO SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKER AT TAU 24H AS IT SHOULD BE OVER COOLER SST (SST BELOW 26 CELSIUS DEGREES) AND UNDERGO A NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR STARTING MAINLY ON SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AS HONDO WILL HAVE WEAKER STEERING FLOW. NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.