Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1200 UTC : 17.4S / 85.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 190 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.7S/85.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/84.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 23.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 22.7S/81.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=6.0+ HONDO IS A SYMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFIEND 40NM DIAMETER EYE. SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS LIGHTLY WARMED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, WHAT EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF T. IT SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.