Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 86.3E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 190 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 19.8S/86.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/10 18 UTC: 21.2S/85.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 22.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 23.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 23.0S/82.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 22.4S/80.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ LATEST SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS AN OPEN EYEWALL IN THE NORTHERN PART. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS LOWERED. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PRESENT GUIDANCE WITH NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HONDO SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.