Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 86.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 22.1S/84.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.7S/83.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 22.9S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 22.5S/81.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 21.7S/79.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ CI=5.5 T-NUMBER STILL PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS EXISTS. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU PASS AT 1951Z) STILL SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EYEWALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PRESENT GUIDANCE WITH NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HONDO SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD HAVE A RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.