Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3S / 86.7E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 230 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 230 50 KT NE: 055 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 055 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/10 18 UTC: 21.6S/85.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 22.5S/84.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 22.9S/83.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 22.8S/82.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 22.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 21.3S/78.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 CI=5.5 DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY KEEPS ON WARMING BUT EYE REMAINS CLEAR ON METEOSAT7 VISIBLE CHANNEL. SSMIS F16 0156Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A TILD BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (37V) AND THE OBVIOUS ONE (85H), REVEALING A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT PROBABLY LIABLE FOR THE NORTHERN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PRESENT GUIDANCE WITH NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HONDO SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD HAVE A RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0033Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.