Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC : 21.4S / 86.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 22.3S/86.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 23.2S/85.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 23.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 22.8S/82.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 22.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 21.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TILD BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (37V) AND THE MIDLEVEL ONE (85H), UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHERLY TO WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WEAKENING AND DIZORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION. HONDO IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, HONDO SHOULD RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1143Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.