Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 0000 UTC : 22.4S / 85.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/4.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 23.7S/84.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 24.0S/84.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 23.9S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 23.6S/82.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 23.3S/80.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 23.0S/79.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=4.0- LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF WEAKENING AND DIZORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION. HONDO IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD RIDE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FILL UP IN A NON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (COOL SST AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).