Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/10/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 85.2E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 24.9S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 25.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 24.7S/81.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 24.7S/80.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 25.0S/79.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/14 18 UTC: 25.6S/78.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS QUITE INEXISTANTE. HONDO IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, WEAKENING OVER COOL SEA. IT COULD EVACUATE INTO A POLAR TROUGH AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1541Z ASCAT SWATH.